The planning fallacy: why projects usually take longer than the estimate
The outside view: estimate a project from how long similar projects took
Even Daniel Kahneman, the psychologist who named the planning fallacy, once fell for it: his own team guessed two years for a textbook. One question to an expert in the room gave a very different number.
-
1
In the 1970s, Kahneman and a small team were writing a school course and its textbook. A year in, he asked each of them how long the rest would take. Everyone said about two years.
-
2
Then he asked Seymour Fox, the team's expert on school courses, another question: how long did other teams like ours take?
The rest of this episode is for subscribers
Subscribe to read every premium episode. You can cancel when you want.
Paid yearly: $99 instead of $119.88