The planning fallacy: why projects usually take longer than the estimate
Reference class forecasting: how to turn past projects into an estimate
The UK sets the budgets of its roads and railways with a method built on one idea: look at how far similar projects went over. Which past projects count as similar, and how do their times become an estimate?
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The planner Bent Flyvbjerg made the outside view into a method of three steps, built on the work of Kahneman and Tversky. He calls it reference class forecasting.
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First, pick past projects like yours: the reference class. For you, it's the six apps you've built for small shops, each with its list and its real time.
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