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Previous episode Why delays in a project add up, while time saved early gets lost

The planning fallacy: why projects usually take longer than the estimate

Hofstadter's law: why a project runs late even after you add extra time

Burned by a late project, you double your next estimate, to be safe. In 1979, the writer Douglas Hofstadter turned what happens next into a joke law, and it still holds.

  1. 1 Your list for the delivery app says three weeks, and you have learned your lesson, so you double it: six weeks, you tell Miva. The extra time is a safety margin, often called a buffer.you promise: 6 weeksyour list+ marginyouSix weeks!

    Your list for the delivery app says three weeks, and you have learned your lesson, so you double it: six weeks, you tell Miva. The extra time is a safety margin, often called a buffer.

  2. 2 The delivery app goes online after seven weeks. Late again, margin and all.you promised6 weekshow long it took7 weeksexample numbers

    The delivery app goes online after seven weeks. Late again, margin and all.

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Next episode The outside view: estimate a project from how long similar projects took

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