The birthday paradox: why 23 people are enough to share a birthday
The birthday paradox beyond birthdays: how many random picks until two match?
The birthday paradox is not really about birthdays. Random door codes, lottery draws and the codes that computers make all run into the same surprise. How many random picks does it take before two are the same?
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1
Rono's tours come in every size. With 10 travellers, he wins only 12 times in 100. With 23, 51 times. With 57, 99 times. With 70, it is almost sure.
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2
Now lay the 365 days out as a square. It has about 19 days on each side. The 23 travellers are a little more than one side of the square. They are far fewer than the whole square.
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